Region may lose seats when legislative districts' lines are redrawn
Legislative districts are based on population, and Western Virginia has lost people over the past 10 years.
By Michael Sluss | The Roanoke Times
RICHMOND -- The boundaries of three congressional districts that cover parts of Western Virginia will change and the region's General Assembly representation could shrink after state lawmakers draw new legislative districts next year.
The region could lose at least one seat in the 100-member House of Delegates when the General Assembly draws new districts to account for a decade's worth of population shifts. The 40 Senate districts also will be reconfigured, but the changes may not affect the number of seats apportioned to Western Virginia. Congressional districts likely will undergo dramatic changes because of uneven population growth over the past 10 years.
Federal law requires the General Assembly to establish new legislative and congressional districts every 10 years to comply with the U.S. Constitution's "one man, one vote" principle. The first step in the redistricting process will begin Wednesday in Roanoke, when a House of Delegates subcommittee holds a 7 p.m. public hearing in the Natural Science Center at Virginia Western Community College.
No plans have been developed and lawmakers won't even have official population totals from the U.S. Census Bureau until February. But Del. Mark Cole, R-Fredericksburg, who heads the House Privileges and Elections Committee, said he still wants input from the public to hear "ideas and concerns that they have with the redistricting process."
Even without official census figures, some Western Virginia lawmakers see ominous writing on the wall.
"This region is the one that's going to pay the price in redistricting," said Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County, a member of a Senate subcommittee that will play a role in crafting districts.
The process has been fiercely political, with majority parties drawing lines to protect incumbents and weaken the opposition. Republicans will steer the House redistricting plan and Democrats will engineer the Senate maps. But with a politically divided legislature, there could be some partisan battles over the drawing of congressional district maps.
Population growth in much of Western Virginia has lagged behind other parts of the state -- especially the outer suburbs of Northern Virginia -- and some localities have lost population since 2000, according to preliminary estimates in a report compiled by the General Assembly's Division of Legislative Services.
As of July 1, 2009, Virginia's population was estimated to be nearly 7.9 million, about 800,000 greater than its 2000 population. But more than 90 percent of the growth has occurred in metropolitan areas, according to the report.
"It looks like it's just a continuing trend that's been going on for the last several decades," Cole said.
Based on the current estimate, each House of Delegates district would have a target population of 78,911 and each Senate district would have a target population of 197,277. The state's 11 congressional districts would be set at 717,370. Lawmakers will set precise population standards after they receive the official census report, which they expect to get in February.
The boundaries of three congressional districts in the region could change dramatically. The 9th District represented by Democrat Rick Boucher of Abingdon, which already stretches from the coalfields to the Alleghany Highlands, is about 67,000 people short of ideal size. State Del. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, is challenging Boucher this year, fully expecting that his home will be in the 9th District by next year.
In the House of Delegates, the district represented by Del. Lacey Putney, I-Bedford, is the only one in an area south and west of Lexington with a population that exceeds the projected ideal size. Districts represented by Democrats Onzlee Ware of Roanoke and Jim Shuler of Blacksburg have populations that fall more than 10 percent short of the target, as do some delegates in Southside Virginia and far Southwest Virginia.
Several others have populations that fall short by more than 5 percent. In its report, the Division of Legislative Services said case law suggests that populations within each legislative district should deviate no more than 5 percent from the ideal size.
"Those areas that haven't grown as much as others will see a loss of seats, and that includes Southwest and Southside Virginia," said House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong, D-Henry County, whose district has a population nearly 7,800 people short of ideal size.
Most of the Senate districts that cover the region also have populations that fall short of the ideal size. But it's too soon to tell whether reapportionment will eliminate any seats. In 2001, the Senate redistricting plan effectively dissolved a district represented by Democrat Madison Marye of Shawsville to create a new seat in fast-growing Northern Virginia.
"I certainly hope that we will keep all the Senate seats in Southwest Virginia," said Sen. John Edwards, D-Roanoke, a member of the Senate Privileges and Elections Committee.
The nine Senate districts that cover portions of the Alleghany Highlands and areas south and west of Lexington have a combined population deficit of about 93,000 people. That should not cost the region a seat, said Sen. Ralph Smith, R-Botetourt County.
"To do it [eliminate a district], you've really got to have some monkey business," said Smith, a member of the Senate Privileges and Elections Committee.
The redistricting puzzle could be more difficult to solve in Hampton Roads, where two Virginia Beach-based districts and a Norfolk district have the largest population deficits in the state.
But numbers alone won't determine how districts get drawn next year. Lawmakers in both parties often say they strive to create compact districts that keep communities of interest intact.
"The larger concern to me is that redistricting will continue to be a partisan process with high regard for incumbency protection for the majority party and little regard for communities of interest and creating compact seats," Armstrong said.
In 2001, House Republicans crafted a redistricting plan that forced 11 Democratic incumbents into five districts. A single district was drawn around Armstrong and fellow Democrats Barnie Day of Patrick County and Tom Jackson of Hillsville. Day and Jackson retired from the legislature rather than seek re-election.
In the Roanoke Valley, Del. Richard Cranwell, D-Vinton, then the House minority leader, retired after being forced into a district with fellow Democrat Clifton "Chip" Woodrum of Roanoke.
Republicans defended their handiwork and argued that it was no more sinister than what Democrats had done to them a decade earlier, when a redistricting plan forced 15 GOP delegates and Putney into eight districts.
The House in recent years has killed bills that would create a bipartisan commission to draw redistricting plans for the legislature to consider. Gov. Bob McDonnell voiced support for such a concept as a candidate, but did not push for it in the legislature this year. The House killed such a bill sponsored by Deeds, who lost to McDonnell in last year's governor's race.
Deeds was critical of the House for holding its own redistricting hearings this fall. The House and Senate held joint hearings a decade ago, and Deeds said separate House and Senate hearings are inefficient and create unnecessary expense.
Cole said excluding the Senate from the fall hearings was "an oversight on my part." Asked if there will be joint hearings next year before the General Assembly's redistricting session, Cole said, "There may be. There haven't been any plans."
Said McDonnell's press secretary, Stacey Johnson: "The governor is pleased that the legislature is seeking public input on redistricting. If proper public input is not accomplished in the next session of the General Assembly, the governor will establish a bipartisan commission on redistricting comprised of Virginia citizens who have not held any elected office for at least 10 years."